UK Christmas Number 1: How many streams and sales do songs need to win Christmas number 1 race?

• The 2024 Christmas Chart race winner is set to be announced later on this afternoon (December 20 2024)
• With a shift in the midweek chart changing the betting odds, who will be crowned this year’s Christmas number 1?
• But how many sales are required to get close to achieving the feat? We’ve looked back at Christmas chart races of old to find the “magic number.”

Today is the day when we finally crown the winner of the 2024 UK chart race, and it’s a nail biter once again.

The midweek chart through the betting odds into somewhat of a disarray, when the second favourite to earn this year’s festive crown, Tom Grennan, dropped from second position, with US pop sensation Gracie Abrams assuming the runner up spot, with Mariah Carey’s “All I Want For Christmas” still hanging in there in third position.

But still reigning at the top of the charts ahead of this evening’s announcement on BBC Radio 1 is Wham!’s iconic “Last Christmas,” the winner of the 2023 chart race and currently still holding that pole position.

But anything can happen as the final combined sales totals are added up to crown this year’s winner.

“Combined sales? But I stream most of my music?” you may ask. Well, since the advent of streaming services, the “equation” to enter the UK chart is a little different compared to the days of just buying a maxi-single or a cassette tape.

So how do the Official Chart Company create this “combined sales” figure - and is there a magic number to reach to assure a top 3 hit over the Christmas period?

How are streams and sales calculated to determine a UK chart position?

In the UK, chart positions are determined by a combination of sales and streams, with each playing an important role in calculating the final ranking on the Official UK Singles Chart.

Sales are straightforward: physical sales, like vinyl and CDs, are counted as one unit per item sold. Digital downloads, such as those from platforms like iTunes and Amazon, also count as one unit for each download

When it comes to streaming, the calculation is a bit different. Instead of each stream counting as one unit, streams are given a specific conversion rate to balance their impact against sales.

For example, 100 streams from a paid service, such as Spotify Premium or Apple Music, are counted as one unit. However, streams from free services, like Spotify Free or YouTube, are valued at 150 streams per unit. This reflects the fact that free-tier services generate less revenue for artists compared to paid subscriptions.

The chart position is determined by the total number of "chart units," which are a mix of both sales and streams. In essence, the more streams and sales a track has in a week, the higher its chance of ranking at the top.

In recent years, streaming has played a larger role in determining chart positions, especially with the rise of platforms like Spotify and Apple Music. This means a song with massive streaming numbers can still achieve a high chart ranking, even if it doesn’t have many physical sales or downloads.

So how many streams and sales are needed to top the UK Christmas chart?

Let’s use the 2023 UK Christmas chart race as an example of how many sales in streams, in theory, one would need to top the chart during the festive season and the final three contenders in that year’s race - Wham!’s ‘Last Christmas,’ Sam Ryder’s ‘You’re Christmas To Me’ and Mariah Carey’s ‘All I Want For Christmas Is You.’

Wham! shifted 61,784 units in the week it was named the 2023 Christmas number one song in the UK. This included 2,436 sales of a green vinyl 7-inch, 1,963 sales of a CD reissue, 2,346 digital downloads, and 55,039 sales-equivalent streams.

In the run up to the result though, Sam Ryder was behind Wham! by only 800 units before ultimately coming in runner up in that year’s race. - just short of reaching 60,000 combined sales.

If we were to look across the last few Christmas Chart races, there is a number that continues to crop up: Statista revealed that “We Built This City” by LadBaby, the 2020 Christmas winner, sold 60,000 units in the first week of its release and it was the same figure once again with 2022’s “Sausage Rolls for Everyone.”

The 2021 race, once again won by LadBaby, saw the song achieve 70,000 combined sales during the first week of release - therefore, in theory, the winner of the 2024 Christmas Number 1 chart race in the United Kingdom needs to gain at least 60,000 combined sales to enter the pantheon of the top 5 in the chart.

Who do you think is going to win the 2024 Christmas Chart race? Share your predictions before the big announcement takes place between 4pm and 6pm GMT on the Official Chart Show with Jack Saunders on BBC Radio 1 on December 20 2024.