How do clubs promoted out of the National League fare once they reach League Two?

Harrogate Town secured their place in the Football League (EFL) for 2020/21 when they beat Notts County 3-1 at Wembley on Sunday.
Harrogate Town celebrate after beating Notts County in the 2019/20 National League play-off final. Pictures: Getty ImagesHarrogate Town celebrate after beating Notts County in the 2019/20 National League play-off final. Pictures: Getty Images
Harrogate Town celebrate after beating Notts County in the 2019/20 National League play-off final. Pictures: Getty Images

A 3-1 victory for the Wetherby Road outfit, who finished the regular season as runners-up, saw them promoted as play-off final winners behind champions Barrow.

With a young, hungry group of ever-improving players at his disposal, Town boss Simon Weaver is understandably confident that his team will hold its own in League Two next term, but what does history dictate?

Hide Ad
Hide Ad

Perhaps surprisingly, most of the sides promoted out of non-league in recent times have gone on to flourish, while no club has come straight back down after just a single term in the EFL.

Grimsby Town won the 2015/16 play-off final, beating Forest Green Rovers, who were promoted a year later.Grimsby Town won the 2015/16 play-off final, beating Forest Green Rovers, who were promoted a year later.
Grimsby Town won the 2015/16 play-off final, beating Forest Green Rovers, who were promoted a year later.

Of the 20 teams promoted to League Two during the 10 seasons prior to 2019/20, only three of them have subsequently been relegated back into the National League.

York City (NL play-off winners 2011/12) went down in 2015/16, while Barnet (2014/15 champions) fell through the trap-door at the end of 2017/18.

Title-winners in 2009/10, Stevenage lasted a decade in the EFL but are set to be demoted having finished this term bottom of the fourth tier.

Hide Ad
Hide Ad

They could yet receive an 11th-hour reprieve, however, with Macclesfield (2017/18 champions) still waiting to hear the outcome of an EFL appeal against the decision to deduct them just two additional points following the latest in a string of failures to pay their players on time.

If the Silkmen are docked more points then they will take over from Stevenage at the foot of the table and thus replace them as only the third side promoted out of non-league in the last 10 years to slide back to whence they came.

The biggest recent success story to emerge from the National League are Luton Town (2013/14 title-winners), who claimed the League One crown in 2018/19 before going on to retain their Championship status this season.

Meanwhile, Oxford United, Crawley, AFC Wimbledon, Fleetwood, Bristol Rovers, Lincoln City and Tranmere have all gone on to play in League One at some stage since escaping tier five.

Hide Ad
Hide Ad

In short, history would suggest that Weaver's men are unlikely to be one-season EFL wonders, though anyone who has watched them play during the last 10 months will realise that there are plenty more indicators which point to Town having enough about them to survive.

The 24 clubs who will compete in League Two in 2020/21:

Barrow (promoted)

Bolton Wanderers (relegated from League One)

Bradford City

Cambridge United

Carlisle United

Cheltenham Town

Colchester United

Crawley Town

Exeter City

Forest Green Rovers

Grimsby Town

Harrogate Town (promoted)

Leyton Orient

Mansfield Town

Morecambe

Newport County

Oldham Athletic

Port Vale

Salford City

Scunthorpe United

Southend United (relegated from League One)

Tranmere Rovers (relegated from League One)

Walsall

Stevenage or Macclesfield (dependant on outcome of EFL appeal).