Harrogate Town almost always win when they score first, but struggle badly when they fall behind

It was however only after interviewing George Thomson at the weekend that I realised just how significant drawing first blood has been for Harrogate Town since their promotion to the Football League.

The Sulphurites midfielder spoke to me about how Salford City going 1-0 up at Wetherby Road on Saturday gave them something to defend and enabled the visitors just to slow everything down, play for free-kicks and make it very difficult for him and his team-mates to generate any real forward momentum as they sought a route back into the contest.

This had me casting my mind back through Town’s previous results of 2020/21 and beyond. What I discovered surprised me.

In the nine games this season in which Simon Weaver’s team has opened the scoring, their success rate is 100 per cent. They have gone on to win every single time.

They have six League Two victories to their name. In all six they struck the first (and often only) goal of the contest.

Their FA Trophy success at Notts County, EFL Trophy triumph over Leicester City under-21s and FA Cup thrashing of Skelmersdale United all saw Harrogate make the initial breakthrough.

Nine times they’ve initially got their noses in front this term. The same nine matches have seen them go on and win inside 90 minutes.

You have to go back to March 7, the club’s last National League fixture before the initial coronavirus lockdown, to find the last occasion on which Town scored first and didn’t come out on top. That 1-1 home draw with Bromley is 12 games ago (counting only matches where Harrogate led 1-0).

Indeed, you have travel as far back in time as November 16, 2019 to a 3-3 draw on the road at Bromley for the previous occasion when Weaver’s troops dropped points having seized a 1-0 lead.

That is a staggering 50 fixtures ago, meaning that just once in the 22 outings where they've scored first have Harrogate not still been in the ascendancy at the final whistle.

This demonstrates that Town very clearly have all the attributes to go on and see matches out from winning positions. They undoubtedly know how to manage a game.

The statistics when you analyse the contests in which the Sulphurites have fallen behind are equally as interesting.

On the 16 occasions that they have conceded first this season, they haven't managed a victory, recovering to draw inside 90 minutes just three times – at Tranmere in the Leaue Cup right at the very start of their maiden EFL campaign, against Walsall at home (2-2) and against Crawley Town (1-1), also at home.

They have taken only two League Two points from a possible 33 in clashes where their opponents have landed the first blow.

The last time that they emerged triumphant inside 90 minutes having found themselves 1-0 behind was against Hartlepool United in the FA Trophy in December, 2019. That was 45 matches ago.

Worrying numbers, because if you’re the opposition manager, then you’re presumably saying to your players that if they can register first, then you’re almost certain to go on to beat Harrogate.

But, that works both ways. What Town need to be telling themselves is that, if they go 1-0 up then it’s proven that they have the tools and know-how to go on and see games out.

Based on their last 50 competitive fixtures, the chances are good that they’ll go on and win if they net first. The probability is a whopping 95.46 per cent, to be exact.

It’s all too evident that Town need to get much better at getting back into matches after they’ve gone a goal down, but that’s something that they can work on in time.

For me, when they’re in such desperate need of points in order to avoid getting dragged into a relegation dog fight, focusing on the positives and trying to ensure that they get that all-important first goal – starting at Oldham on Boxing Day – is the way forward.