Sunday Times poll predicts Andrew Jones MP will lose Harrogate seat to Lib Dems Tom Gordon at next general election

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak may not have even picked a date yet, though he has consistently hinted it will be held in the second half of the year.

But a MRP poll by Survation, reported in The Sunday Times at the weekend, projects, that if an election were held today, the Lib Dems would overturn the sitting Tory MP’s sizeable majority and win with a 5% majority.

The poll of 15,029 adults and MRP analysis by Survation on behalf of Best for Britain was conducted between March 8 and March 22, 2024.

Although a survey is not a guarantee of anything, the latest blow for the Conservative Party in Harrogate comes as the Liberal Democrats have been running a number of national and local campaigns around the sewage scandal, with it being revealed last week sewage dumping in the Nidd doubled in the last year.

Liberal Democrat candidate for Harrogate and Knaresborough, Tom Gordon said it was no surprise that residents were turning their backs on the incumbent Conservative MP.

"The only poll that matters is the one on election day itself,” said Mr Gordon.

"But this is only the latest in a series projections for the seat that show the Liberal Democrats are in clear contention to win back Harrogate and Knaresborough from the Conservatives.

“Even Electoral Calculus, which was one of the few remaining sources predicting a Conservative hold, is now suggesting local residents will be turning their backs on incumbent Conservative MP Andrew Jones.

"But this is no great surprise. We have an MP that has consistently voted against measures that would stop sewage dumping in our rivers, failed to fight for our NHS services, and has taken our area for granted.

"If elected I would stand up for Harrogate and Knaresborough and give local people the voice that we need and that local residents deserve.”

Four times winner Andrew Jones is defending a majority of 9,675 from the 2019 election.